As part of our launching edition and the upcoming economy conference, we found that we should give our portal users a broader picture of how the global geopolitical changes affecting our economy are arriving on a positive side regarding the economy and relieving the stress over the USD.
In a continuing series, we will just present the information that we found exciting across many resources; alongside market expertise comments.
Series 1: THE COLDER, THE BETTER
Series 2: THE TRAFFIC
Series 3: The INDUSTRIAL
Intro: This winter Egypt Wins.
For many countries and predominantly rich natural gas countries, the higher demand due to the war in Ukraine is favorable for their outflows, and the more winter is here, the more exports are out. Even when the Egyptian government is increasing its share of exports by reducing local usage of natural gas across different power reduction plans announced by the Prime Minister a couple of months ago, we are winning double.
The colder winter carries higher consumption and higher exports from countries with rich natural gas; Algeria and GCC are creating more traffic for the Canal "Suez Canal." Alongside a 100% usage of the LNG vessels across the globe stationed mainly in Europe, either lingering for higher natural gas prices or facing crowded re-gasification berths due to the low storage capacities could transfer their load to the Asian markets.
Industries depending on natural gas and located outside Europe are entirely in a heaven winter; the ability to produce is a luxury for some European countries. Fertilizers and Steel producers in Eurozone are facing a very high gas price in addition to the limitation of supply hampering production and increasing costs for consumers; a condition could be worse with colder weather. The sanctions are a positive note for producers with plenty of gas supply even with high gas prices, as sanctions are bridging new markets for producers with a production shortage across others.
The weather is beginning with a warmer winter; however, the ECMWF (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) expects the weather to get colder by December.
"There is still a very significant risk of a cold outbreak. And if anything, the risk is slightly higher than usual," Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at ECMWF, told Reuters
The weather risk will be updated weakly during winter through our Europe Weather Weekly updates; weather prediction will determine the direction of gas prices and the pace of increasing traffic at the Suez Canal.
We welcome all analysts across the globe to share their ideas about our data coverage for " This Winter Egypt Wins." through email: egvest@egvest.com
Sources: Gathering information about the topic in terms of data took place across the following websites ( CNN, WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, and S&P Global)
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